This is largely dependent on the reaction of agencies and, more importantly, public sector bodies. Due to continued press exposure of perceived ‘tax avoidance’ in the public sector, there is widespread risk aversion. The default position for many will therefore be to avoid any possible attack or condemnation.
On the other hand, there is a growing realisation that taking a hard-line approach to these new rules will drive many skilled, vital workers out of the public sector. This has already started to happen, with some contractors making early movements into the private sector (where the rules will not change).
Public sector bodies will be making use of the recently published ESS tool by HMRC to issue status determinations to their PSC workforce. Those that have taken an early, risk averse stance have faced a fierce backlash from their contractors and that reaction will have been noted by others.
The deduction of tax at source by agencies also presents a complex problem for them, and there is a likelihood that many will push inside-IR35 contractors towards umbrella companies.